Precious metals extended their historic 2026 rally this week as gold held firmly above $4,700 per ounce and silver punched through the $80 mark, with traders weighing renewed geopolitical clashes against a Federal Reserve still committed to a higher-for-longer rate stance.
Gold Anchored Near Record Territory
Gold was trading at $4,724 per ounce as of 9:05 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, slipping $15 from the prior session but standing $1,364 higher than the same time a year ago, according to Fortune's daily price data. The metal had logged its strongest single-day gain of the week on May 7, when spot prices climbed $46.12, or 0.98%, to settle at $4,740.42 per ounce.
The week opened with gold near $4,592 on May 1 before briefly dipping to roughly $4,564 on May 4. Buyers stepped back in aggressively mid-week as headlines from the Middle East intensified.
Renewed clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces shook safe-haven demand, even as President Trump publicly predicted a swift conclusion to the conflict. According to reports, Tehran is actively reviewing a U.S. peace proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, removing an inflationary risk premium that has hovered over markets since late February.
Silver's Breakout Continues
Silver has been the standout performer. The metal jumped 2.99% on Thursday to $80.71 per troy ounce on Trading Economics data, capping a 7.15% gain over the past month and an extraordinary 146.71% rise versus the same period in 2025.
The structural backdrop remains bullish. The Silver Institute expects 2026 to mark yet another year of supply deficit, with industrial demand from solar, electric vehicles, and electronics consuming more silver than global mines can produce. J.P. Morgan forecasts an average silver price of roughly $81 per ounce in 2026, with quarterly ranges between $75 and $85. The London Bullion Market Association's analyst survey lands in similar territory at about $80 per ounce.
Fed Holds the Line, but Inflation Bites
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75% at the April 29 meeting, citing persistent price pressure. March Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — printed at 3.2% year over year, the hottest reading since November 2023.
Markets have largely accepted the message. CME Group data shows roughly a 95% probability the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the June FOMC meeting. Investors are now turning their attention to a leadership transition at the Fed scheduled for later this month, an event analysts say could amplify volatility across rates and metals alike.
Outlook: Higher Highs in Sight?
Wall Street's biggest banks remain constructive. J.P. Morgan projects gold could push toward $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by central bank buying that the bank expects to average 585 tonnes per quarter this year. Several major institutions have flagged scenarios in which gold tests the $5,000–$6,000 range and silver approaches $100 if Fed policy shifts dovish.
For now, the path of least resistance remains higher. With sticky inflation, sustained central bank accumulation, geopolitical risk, and a structural silver deficit all pulling in the same direction, dips have been bought aggressively. The next major catalyst will likely be upcoming labor data — a hot print would reinforce the Fed's restrictive stance and could pressure metals, while a softer result would revive 2026 rate-cut bets and likely send gold and silver to fresh records.
Sources: Fortune, Trading Economics, J.P. Morgan Global Research, Silver Institute, CME Group